By: M. Arief Rajendra
Jakarta – Tension has only grown for next year’s presidential election, especially with the return of Prabowo Subianto as Joko Widodo’s opponent. However, with the numerous significant events occurring within Jokowi’s presidency, such as new infrastructural projects, violations of Labor Force Regulations, as well as skyrocketing monetary inflation rates, this topic has been a hot topic for scholarly debates and discussions.
Synapse of Jokowi’s Victory in Pilpres 2014
Jokowi was an underdog during the 2014 race for the presidency, having only the experience as the Governor of Solo and shortly as the Governor of DKI Jakarta. Nevertheless, through popularity and his fast progression in the political world, Jokowi won the presidency against the same opponent for next year, Prabowo Subianto. As the first civilian president, a numerous amount of Indonesians have their doubts on Jokowi.
Points on Jokowi’s Administration
Though most would argue that Jokowi’s presidency went smoothly, some would argue otherwise. Some points that support Jokowi’s administration are:
1. Building new infrastructures would increase the pace of the economy
2. Inflation has been kept stable at 3,61% (Sri Mulyani, 2017)
3. Inviting foreign investors to the Indonesian economy
4. Paying off debt with other countries
5. Protection of sea borders
On the other hand, another side of the Indonesian demography would argue against his administration. Some of the popular points among the debates are:
1. Overspending in the infrastructure sector of the economy
2. Privatization of BUMNs
3. Inflation kept stable above the Rp.14.000 line
4. Violations of Foreign Labor Force Regulations
5. Misallocating funds, such as funds for BPJS and Haji, to be allocated in the infrastructure sector
6. No regulations on the black market for trading Indonesian sands with Singapore
7. Weak regulations and penalties on illegal private infrastructural projects
With these points in mind, the demographic of Indonesia are struggling to choose between entrusting Jokowi a second period as the president or to remove him from his power. This is very evident from rapidly growing social media movements, such as #2019GantiPresiden and #Jokowi2Periode.
Though political thinkers believe that such movements will impair our unity as a nation, most Indonesians believe that changing the president will be absolutely necessary in order to bring about more advantageous changes to our country. With this, Jokowi’s potential of winning a second period might be becoming slimmer by the day.
The Move to Islamic Politics
With the rise of SARA issues (Suku, Agama, Ras, Antargolongan), the problem with religion has been truly incorporated in today’s Indonesian politics, especially with movements inspired by events such as 212. With light towards this conflict, tension has grown among the political rivals running for next year’s presidential elections.
Due to that, Joko Widodo has made a very unexpected decision. At first, Mahfud M.D was promised to be Jokowi’s running mate for the presidential election. However, with light towards the issues regarding SARA, Jokowi has disregarded this promise to Mahfud M.D and the country’s expectation on who the next candidate for vice presidency would be.
For next year’s election, Jokowi has chosen Ma’ruf Amin, an Islamic politician and chair of the Majelis Ulama Indonesia (MUI). Some speculations have led people to believe that this choice might have been to reduce religious tension within Indonesia’s politics today and to favor the Islamic conservatives of Indonesia.
The Rising Opponent
Unsurprisingly, Prabowo Subianto has stepped up again to challenge Jokowi for the presidency. Although most of the Indonesian demographic would have thought that Prabowo won’t attempt to run for the presidency again, he couldn’t have come at a more opportune time.
With the declining support of the people, Jokowi is facing losing next year’s presidency, especially with the rise of #2019GantiPresiden. Being the only option besides Jokowi, Prabowo Subianto might have fortune’s side during the next presidential election.
As for the candidate for vice president in Prabowo’s campaign, this has been a debate topic among the Islamic politicians and other secular politicians. In order to match the opposition, Jokowi’s candidate for vice presidency, Ma’ruf Amin, the Ijtima Ulama (meeting between Islamic leaders) held by the GNPF-MUI has recommended two vice presidential candidates to run with Prabowo, which were Habib Salim Segaf Al Jufri and Ustadz Abdul Somad.
However, realizing that Indonesia’s economy is in a dire state, Prabowo has decided to abandon the results of the Ijtima Ulama and instead has chosen a prolific businessman and politician, Sandiaga Uno. With experience as the vice governor of DKI Jakarta, Prabowo is keen that Sandi’s electability would be far superior compared to the likes of Abdul Somad and Habib Salim Segaf Al Jufri.
Though this has stirred more tension from the Islamic side of Indonesia’s politics towards Prabowo’s campaign, selecting Sandiaga Uno as the candidate for vice president is undoubtedly the right course of action. This is because Sandiaga Uno has far more economic experiences compared to the candidates selected by the Ijtima Ulama. In a country where microeconomic policies are in dire need of repair, an entrepreneur with the likes of Sandiaga Uno would be a better candidate compared to the other candidates selected by the Ijtima Ulama.
In Conclusion
In the true essence of winning a presidential election, electability is all that matters. For now, that electability can be used as a prediction for the possible outcome of next year’s presidential election. As of May 2018, which was before the vice presidential candidates were announced, multiple surveys have shown the electability of these two candidates:
1. Politracking (27 January-3 February 2018)
· Jokowi: 51,1%
· Prabowo: 26,1%
2. Litbang Kompas (21 March-1 April 2018)
· Jokowi: 55,9%
· Prabowo: 14,1%
3. Cyrus Network (27 March-3 April 2018)
· Jokowi: 58,5%
· Prabowo: 21,8%
4. Indikator (25-31 March 2018)
· Jokowi: 51,9%
· Prabowo: 19,2%
From this data, it could be concluded that Jokowi will win the presidency as of next year. However, with the turn of events regarding the presidential candidates’ chosen vice presidential candidates, the electability of the candidates might have changed drastically. All there is to be said is that the future of this country is in your hands.
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